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Why this sandbox exists

Autonomous ride-hail is arriving in cities faster than the rules that govern it. Washington, D.C. is now weighing how — and whether — to let robotaxis operate at scale. Those choices (how many vehicles, how many operators, what fees, whether to require service parity east of the Anacostia) will shape who gets served, at what price, and who pays for the curb and congestion costs.

This sandbox lets you play as an all-powerful mayor: set the terms and watch how service, equity, fares, and city revenue move across all eight wards. It is built to make the tradeoffs legible — not to argue for any single policy. The clearest example is the spatial-versus-social equity tension drawn from Gao & Li (2023): requiring even geographic coverage can raise fares in ways that fall hardest on lower-income riders. The model shows that tension instead of hiding it.

What it is — and isn't

This is a Tier 1 prototype. Every parameter is mapped to a published source or flagged as judgment in the methodology, including a candid list of the model’s known weaknesses. The outputs express the directional logic of regulatory tradeoffs. They are not forecasts, and no number here should be cited as a prediction of what would happen in D.C. under any specific rule set. Where our calibration leans in a direction, we say so.

The tool is for the people doing the actual work of this debate: Council staff, researchers, journalists, and residents — including those skeptical of AVs. If it is doing its job, it should help a skeptic stress-test a claim, not feel like it is selling one.

About The Innovation Majority Institute

The Innovation Majority Institute (IMI) is a nonprofit think tank working on technology and mobility policy in the public interest. We publish tools and analysis to inform debate rather than to advocate for a predetermined outcome. The methodology behind this sandbox is open for inspection; corrections and other suggested data are welcome.

You can contact us with any questions at mobilitymayor@imajority.institute.

About this model

Operators allocate vehicles across wards proportional to (demand × margin), or — with wait-time parity on — to demand share alone. Per-ward wait time is a function of local vehicle density vs local demand, modulated by a density / spread factor. Service level is derived from wait time. Baseline parameters (addressable demand, per-vehicle daily cost, fare elasticity, ward demand shares, density factors) are calibrated from public data and industry benchmarks but are not production-grade forecasts. The model expresses directional logic of policy tradeoffs, not precise outcomes. The full methodology documents every parameter and its source.

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© The Innovation Majority InstituteEducational tool. Map is schematic, not cartographic.